The long-term data, stretching back to 2018, shows the cyclical nature of the GTA housing market. After the major boom of 2020-2021 and the subsequent correction in 2022-2023, the market is once again in a cooling phase in 2025. Sales volume is down over 30% compared to August 2023, and the 24-month price trend clearly shows that the market is now trading below the levels of two years prior.

The recent monthly trend, with its steady decline in both sales and prices, reinforces this narrative. The market is clearly shifting towards a more balanced state, heavily influenced by affordability challenges and higher borrowing costs that temper buyer demand. The intense competition of previous years has subsided, granting more negotiating power to prospective buyers.

Outlook: The fall market will be a critical test. A typical seasonal rebound in activity is expected, but its strength will determine the market’s direction for the remainder of the year. If inventory continues to outpace sales, further price stabilization or modest declines are likely. The long-term demand fundamentals in the GTA remain strong, but short-term dynamics are now firmly in a buyer-friendlier phase.